Nahdi Medical Valuation

Is 4164 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4164 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4164 (SAR116) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR105.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4164 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4164?

Key metric: As 4164 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4164. This is calculated by dividing 4164's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4164's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.1x
Earnings	ر.س833.39m
Market Cap	ر.س15.08b

4164 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.2x
PEG Ratio	3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4164's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4164 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.9x
4163 Al-Dawaa Medical Services	18.5x	14.1%	ر.س6.6b
4001 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets	23.9x	11.6%	ر.س9.7b
4161 BinDawood Holding	26.2x	10.6%	ر.س7.5b
4162 Almunajem Foods	19.1x	n/a	ر.س5.7b
4164 Nahdi Medical	18.1x	6.1%	ر.س15.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4164 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the peer average (21.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4164's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Retailing Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4164 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the Asian Consumer Retailing industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4164's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4164 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.1x
Fair PE Ratio	22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4164 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4164 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س116.00	ر.س138.87 +19.7%	10.2%	ر.س168.00	ر.س120.00	n/a	7
Dec ’25	ر.س117.80	ر.س139.59 +18.5%	9.5%	ر.س168.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Nov ’25	ر.س123.40	ر.س142.77 +15.7%	10.3%	ر.س176.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Oct ’25	ر.س131.40	ر.س142.77 +8.6%	10.3%	ر.س176.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Sep ’25	ر.س133.00	ر.س146.34 +10.0%	11.3%	ر.س176.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Aug ’25	ر.س131.60	ر.س149.47 +13.6%	10.4%	ر.س176.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	ر.س131.40	ر.س151.75 +15.5%	10.0%	ر.س176.00	ر.س125.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	ر.س131.00	ر.س153.04 +16.8%	8.6%	ر.س176.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	7
May ’25	ر.س137.40	ر.س155.44 +13.1%	8.1%	ر.س176.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	ر.س146.20	ر.س156.01 +6.7%	8.8%	ر.س176.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	ر.س142.00	ر.س155.37 +9.4%	9.5%	ر.س176.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	6
Feb ’25	ر.س139.20	ر.س155.37 +11.6%	9.5%	ر.س176.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	6
Jan ’25	ر.س143.00	ر.س159.53 +11.6%	12.3%	ر.س190.00	ر.س134.00	n/a	6
Dec ’24	ر.س135.80	ر.س164.60 +21.2%	11.4%	ر.س190.00	ر.س134.00	ر.س117.80	5
Nov ’24	ر.س134.40	ر.س176.40 +31.3%	14.9%	ر.س221.00	ر.س148.00	ر.س123.40	5
Oct ’24	ر.س146.60	ر.س176.40 +20.3%	14.9%	ر.س221.00	ر.س148.00	ر.س131.40	5
Sep ’24	ر.س151.80	ر.س187.25 +23.4%	13.9%	ر.س221.00	ر.س148.00	ر.س133.00	4
Aug ’24	ر.س176.00	ر.س203.60 +15.7%	7.8%	ر.س221.00	ر.س180.00	ر.س131.60	5
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س203.60 0%	7.8%	ر.س221.00	ر.س180.00	ر.س131.40	5
Jun ’24	ر.س171.60	ر.س203.60 +18.6%	7.8%	ر.س221.00	ر.س180.00	ر.س131.00	5
May ’24	ر.س181.20	ر.س207.00 +14.2%	7.7%	ر.س221.00	ر.س180.00	ر.س137.40	4
Apr ’24	ر.س184.60	ر.س216.00 +17.0%	1.7%	ر.س221.00	ر.س212.00	ر.س146.20	3
Mar ’24	ر.س181.00	ر.س209.33 +15.7%	2.9%	ر.س215.00	ر.س201.00	ر.س142.00	3
Feb ’24	ر.س187.80	ر.س209.33 +11.5%	2.9%	ر.س215.00	ر.س201.00	ر.س139.20	3
Jan ’24	ر.س171.60	ر.س210.00 +22.4%	4.3%	ر.س219.00	ر.س201.00	ر.س143.00	2
Dec ’23	ر.س187.80	ر.س186.67 -0.6%	13.4%	ر.س219.00	ر.س158.00	ر.س135.80	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/22 23:30
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/22 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Nahdi Medical Company is covered by 7 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Duaa AlFadda	BofA Global Research
Michel Salameh	Citigroup Inc
Ahmed Moataz	EFG-Hermes Research