Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4001 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4001 (SAR11) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR12.56)

Is 4001 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4001 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4001 (SAR11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR12.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4001 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4001?

Key metric: As 4001 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4001. This is calculated by dividing 4001's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4001's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	24.4x
Earnings	ر.س405.56m
Market Cap	ر.س9.90b

4001 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.4x
PEG Ratio	2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4001's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4001 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21x
4161 BinDawood Holding	27.2x	11.2%	ر.س7.8b
4163 Al-Dawaa Medical Services	18.7x	14.0%	ر.س6.7b
4164 Nahdi Medical	18.5x	6.7%	ر.س15.4b
4162 Almunajem Foods	19.5x	n/a	ر.س5.9b
4001 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets	24.4x	9.9%	ر.س9.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4001 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the peer average (21x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4001's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Retailing Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4001 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the Asian Consumer Retailing industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4001's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4001 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	24.4x
Fair PE Ratio	22.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4001 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4001 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س11.00	ر.س12.74 +15.8%	16.7%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	11
Nov ’25	ر.س11.80	ر.س12.70 +7.6%	16.7%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	11
Oct ’25	ر.س12.00	ر.س12.70 +5.8%	16.7%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	11
Sep ’25	ر.س11.60	ر.س13.08 +12.8%	14.9%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	12
Aug ’25	ر.س11.70	ر.س13.53 +15.6%	14.6%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	12
Jul ’25	ر.س11.34	ر.س13.65 +20.4%	14.0%	ر.س17.00	ر.س9.90	n/a	13
Jun ’25	ر.س11.24	ر.س14.13 +25.7%	10.6%	ر.س17.00	ر.س10.00	n/a	13
May ’25	ر.س12.68	ر.س14.16 +11.7%	10.6%	ر.س17.00	ر.س10.00	n/a	13
Apr ’25	ر.س12.94	ر.س14.09 +8.9%	10.9%	ر.س17.00	ر.س10.00	n/a	12
Mar ’25	ر.س13.34	ر.س14.07 +5.4%	11.0%	ر.س17.00	ر.س10.00	n/a	12
Feb ’25	ر.س13.50	ر.س13.70 +1.5%	9.8%	ر.س15.10	ر.س10.00	n/a	11
Jan ’25	ر.س13.18	ر.س13.63 +3.4%	10.0%	ر.س15.10	ر.س9.70	n/a	12
Dec ’24	ر.س12.60	ر.س13.72 +8.9%	10.9%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	n/a	12
Nov ’24	ر.س13.00	ر.س13.62 +4.7%	11.8%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	ر.س11.80	12
Oct ’24	ر.س13.54	ر.س13.62 +0.6%	11.8%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	ر.س12.00	12
Sep ’24	ر.س14.56	ر.س13.58 -6.8%	11.8%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	ر.س11.60	12
Aug ’24	ر.س14.84	ر.س12.84 -13.5%	14.3%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	ر.س11.70	12
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س12.84 0%	14.3%	ر.س16.20	ر.س9.70	ر.س11.34	12
Jun ’24	ر.س13.70	ر.س12.92 -5.7%	11.9%	ر.س14.90	ر.س9.70	ر.س11.24	11
May ’24	ر.س14.20	ر.س12.59 -11.4%	12.5%	ر.س15.05	ر.س8.70	ر.س12.68	11
Apr ’24	ر.س12.80	ر.س12.54 -2.0%	12.4%	ر.س15.05	ر.س8.70	ر.س12.94	11
Mar ’24	ر.س11.24	ر.س12.39 +10.3%	13.2%	ر.س15.00	ر.س8.70	ر.س13.34	11
Feb ’24	ر.س10.52	ر.س12.59 +19.7%	13.6%	ر.س15.00	ر.س8.70	ر.س13.50	11
Jan ’24	ر.س10.48	ر.س12.65 +20.7%	12.9%	ر.س15.00	ر.س9.00	ر.س13.18	11
Dec ’23	ر.س11.56	ر.س12.87 +11.4%	12.0%	ر.س15.05	ر.س9.00	ر.س12.60	10
Nov ’23	ر.س11.40	ر.س12.37 +8.6%	11.3%	ر.س14.50	ر.س9.00	ر.س13.00	11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.