Stock Analysis

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Bin Dawood Holding Company (TADAWUL:4161)

SASE:4161
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Bin Dawood Holding Company (TADAWUL:4161) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Bin Dawood Holding

The calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (SAR, Millions) ر.س807.0m ر.س746.0m ر.س848.0m ر.س952.5m ر.س1.02b ر.س1.10b ر.س1.19b ر.س1.29b ر.س1.39b ر.س1.51b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 7.16% Est @ 7.67% Est @ 8.03% Est @ 8.28% Est @ 8.46% Est @ 8.58%
Present Value (SAR, Millions) Discounted @ 14% ر.س709 ر.س575 ر.س574 ر.س566 ر.س533 ر.س504 ر.س478 ر.س455 ر.س433 ر.س413

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.س5.2b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 8.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.س1.5b× (1 + 8.9%) ÷ (14%– 8.9%) = ر.س33b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ر.س33b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= ر.س9.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ر.س14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ر.س114, the company appears about fair value at a 8.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
SASE:4161 Discounted Cash Flow May 4th 2021

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bin Dawood Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Bin Dawood Holding, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Bin Dawood Holding we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 4161's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SASE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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