Alinma Bank Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1150 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1150 (SAR27.8) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR7.74)

Is 1150 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1150 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1150 (SAR27.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR7.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1150 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1150?

Key metric: As 1150 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1150. This is calculated by dividing 1150's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1150's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.1x
Earnings	ر.س5.30b
Market Cap	ر.س68.63b

1150 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1150's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1150 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.8x
1060 Saudi Awwal Bank	8.6x	6.6%	ر.س65.1b
1010 Riyad Bank	9.2x	4.8%	ر.س79.7b
1080 Arab National Bank	8.4x	3.6%	ر.س39.2b
1140 Bank Albilad	17.1x	12.2%	ر.س45.1b
1150 Alinma Bank	13.1x	11.6%	ر.س68.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1150 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the peer average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1150's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Banks Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1150 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the Asian Banks industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1150's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1150 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.1x
Fair PE Ratio	12.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1150 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1150 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س27.80	ر.س34.00 +22.3%	7.2%	ر.س39.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Nov ’25	ر.س28.10	ر.س34.36 +22.3%	6.6%	ر.س39.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Oct ’25	ر.س28.75	ر.س34.27 +19.2%	5.9%	ر.س37.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Sep ’25	ر.س31.65	ر.س34.49 +9.0%	6.3%	ر.س38.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Aug ’25	ر.س32.10	ر.س34.70 +8.1%	6.1%	ر.س39.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Jul ’25	ر.س31.00	ر.س34.87 +12.5%	6.4%	ر.س39.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
Jun ’25	ر.س30.60	ر.س34.87 +14.0%	6.4%	ر.س39.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	16
May ’25	ر.س32.60	ر.س35.73 +9.6%	8.5%	ر.س43.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	15
Apr ’25	ر.س33.60	ر.س34.39 +2.3%	8.9%	ر.س39.20	ر.س28.00	n/a	15
Mar ’25	ر.س35.16	ر.س32.46 -7.7%	10.9%	ر.س37.60	ر.س25.20	n/a	14
Feb ’25	ر.س33.76	ر.س31.11 -7.9%	10.8%	ر.س38.00	ر.س25.20	n/a	13
Jan ’25	ر.س31.92	ر.س29.71 -6.9%	10.3%	ر.س33.36	ر.س23.20	n/a	12
Dec ’24	ر.س28.64	ر.س29.31 +2.3%	10.5%	ر.س33.36	ر.س23.20	n/a	12
Nov ’24	ر.س27.64	ر.س28.89 +4.5%	10.0%	ر.س33.36	ر.س24.64	ر.س28.10	12
Oct ’24	ر.س26.92	ر.س29.29 +8.8%	9.6%	ر.س33.36	ر.س24.64	ر.س28.75	11
Sep ’24	ر.س29.52	ر.س28.97 -1.9%	9.3%	ر.س33.36	ر.س22.80	ر.س31.65	12
Aug ’24	ر.س29.52	ر.س28.27 -4.2%	9.0%	ر.س32.00	ر.س22.80	ر.س32.10	11
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س28.73 0%	8.6%	ر.س32.00	ر.س22.80	ر.س31.00	11
Jun ’24	ر.س25.64	ر.س28.60 +11.5%	10.5%	ر.س32.00	ر.س20.32	ر.س30.60	11
May ’24	ر.س25.84	ر.س29.55 +14.3%	11.9%	ر.س34.40	ر.س20.32	ر.س32.60	12
Apr ’24	ر.س23.56	ر.س29.88 +26.8%	13.0%	ر.س34.88	ر.س20.32	ر.س33.60	11
Mar ’24	ر.س23.28	ر.س30.74 +32.1%	14.3%	ر.س36.00	ر.س20.32	ر.س35.16	10
Feb ’24	ر.س26.36	ر.س31.30 +18.8%	13.9%	ر.س36.00	ر.س20.32	ر.س33.76	10
Jan ’24	ر.س26.08	ر.س31.66 +21.4%	14.4%	ر.س36.00	ر.س20.32	ر.س31.92	9
Dec ’23	ر.س27.04	ر.س31.73 +17.4%	11.3%	ر.س36.00	ر.س23.36	ر.س28.64	9
Nov ’23	ر.س29.92	ر.س32.02 +7.0%	13.6%	ر.س40.80	ر.س23.36	ر.س27.64	9

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.