Riyad Bank Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1010 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1010 (SAR26.6) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR1.58)

Is 1010 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1010 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1010 (SAR26.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR1.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1010 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1010?

Key metric: As 1010 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1010. This is calculated by dividing 1010's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1010's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.1x
Earnings	ر.س8.71b
Market Cap	ر.س79.67b

1010 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1010's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1010 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12x
1150 Alinma Bank	13x	11.6%	ر.س69.1b
1060 Saudi Awwal Bank	8.5x	6.6%	ر.س64.7b
1140 Bank Albilad	17.1x	12.2%	ر.س44.9b
1050 Banque Saudi Fransi	9.3x	9.6%	ر.س37.3b
1010 Riyad Bank	9.1x	4.8%	ر.س79.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1010 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1010's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Banks Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1010 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the Asian Banks industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1010's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1010 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.1x
Fair PE Ratio	11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1010 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1010 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س26.60	ر.س33.86 +27.3%	9.2%	ر.س41.50	ر.س28.50	n/a	15
Nov ’25	ر.س25.75	ر.س33.26 +29.2%	10.2%	ر.س41.50	ر.س27.50	n/a	15
Oct ’25	ر.س24.96	ر.س33.58 +34.5%	10.3%	ر.س41.50	ر.س27.50	n/a	15
Sep ’25	ر.س26.30	ر.س34.19 +30.0%	9.7%	ر.س41.50	ر.س27.50	n/a	15
Aug ’25	ر.س27.25	ر.س34.18 +25.4%	10.8%	ر.س41.50	ر.س24.00	n/a	15
Jul ’25	ر.س25.45	ر.س34.18 +34.3%	10.8%	ر.س41.50	ر.س24.00	n/a	15
Jun ’25	ر.س24.40	ر.س34.18 +40.1%	10.8%	ر.س41.50	ر.س24.00	n/a	15
May ’25	ر.س27.45	ر.س34.81 +26.8%	10.9%	ر.س41.50	ر.س24.00	n/a	15
Apr ’25	ر.س29.10	ر.س34.48 +18.5%	11.3%	ر.س41.50	ر.س24.00	n/a	15
Mar ’25	ر.س31.10	ر.س33.64 +8.2%	11.7%	ر.س38.90	ر.س22.00	n/a	14
Feb ’25	ر.س28.45	ر.س33.19 +16.7%	12.3%	ر.س39.20	ر.س22.00	n/a	13
Jan ’25	ر.س28.75	ر.س33.43 +16.3%	7.3%	ر.س37.40	ر.س28.10	n/a	12
Dec ’24	ر.س26.70	ر.س33.48 +25.4%	7.5%	ر.س38.00	ر.س28.10	n/a	12
Nov ’24	ر.س27.40	ر.س34.32 +25.2%	6.5%	ر.س37.00	ر.س28.10	ر.س25.75	12
Oct ’24	ر.س27.70	ر.س35.21 +27.1%	8.0%	ر.س40.00	ر.س29.70	ر.س24.96	12
Sep ’24	ر.س30.45	ر.س34.95 +14.8%	7.9%	ر.س40.00	ر.س29.70	ر.س26.30	13
Aug ’24	ر.س31.45	ر.س35.48 +12.8%	9.2%	ر.س41.00	ر.س29.70	ر.س27.25	13
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س35.83 0%	9.3%	ر.س41.00	ر.س29.70	ر.س25.45	12
Jun ’24	ر.س31.60	ر.س35.01 +10.8%	12.3%	ر.س40.00	ر.س24.20	ر.س24.40	12
May ’24	ر.س31.10	ر.س34.30 +10.3%	13.1%	ر.س40.00	ر.س24.20	ر.س27.45	12
Apr ’24	ر.س29.70	ر.س35.58 +19.8%	13.7%	ر.س42.00	ر.س24.20	ر.س29.10	11
Mar ’24	ر.س27.45	ر.س37.91 +38.1%	9.1%	ر.س42.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س31.10	10
Feb ’24	ر.س30.60	ر.س39.23 +28.2%	8.7%	ر.س42.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س28.45	9
Jan ’24	ر.س31.70	ر.س39.79 +25.5%	10.1%	ر.س46.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س28.75	9
Dec ’23	ر.س34.30	ر.س41.60 +21.3%	5.9%	ر.س46.00	ر.س37.50	ر.س26.70	9
Nov ’23	ر.س36.20	ر.س41.43 +14.5%	5.9%	ر.س46.00	ر.س38.00	ر.س27.40	9

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.