Stock Analysis

While shareholders of Riyad Bank (TADAWUL:1010) are in the red over the last year, underlying earnings have actually grown

SASE:1010
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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. For example, the Riyad Bank (TADAWUL:1010) share price is down 23% in the last year. That's well below the market decline of 5.1%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 2.1% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 12% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 11% in the same period.

While the stock has risen 5.0% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for Riyad Bank

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Even though the Riyad Bank share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.

We don't see any weakness in the Riyad Bank's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SASE:1010 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 24th 2024

Riyad Bank is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Riyad Bank will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Riyad Bank, it has a TSR of -20% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 5.1% in the twelve months, Riyad Bank shareholders did even worse, losing 20% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Riyad Bank .

But note: Riyad Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Saudi exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Riyad Bank is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Riyad Bank is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com