Saudi National Bank (SASE:1180) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1180 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1180 (SAR73) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR60.66)

1180 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

1180 Stock Overview

The Saudi National Bank provides various banking products and services in Saudi Arabia.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (20.9x) is below the SA market (27.5x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 20.3% per year

Earnings grew by 30.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Saudi National Bank Competitors

Al Rajhi Banking and Investment

SASE:1120

ر.س351.6b

Riyad Bank

SASE:1010

ر.س111.9b

Saudi British Bank

SASE:1060

ر.س87.3b

Alinma Bank

SASE:1150

ر.س76.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Saudi National Bank
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	ر.س73.00
52 Week High	ر.س82.00
52 Week Low	ر.س58.40
Beta	0.63
1 Month Change	8.31%
3 Month Change	-1.35%
1 Year Change	21.67%
3 Year Change	41.75%
5 Year Change	117.43%
Change since IPO	121.21%

Shareholder Returns

	1180	SA Banks	SA Market
7D	2.1%	1.0%	2.6%
1Y	21.7%	27.0%	20.7%

Return vs Industry: 1180 underperformed the SA Banks industry which returned 27% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 1180 exceeded the SA Market which returned 20.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 1180's price volatile compared to industry and market?
1180 volatility
1180 Average Weekly Movement	4.4%
Banks Industry Average Movement	5.0%
Market Average Movement	5.1%
10% most volatile stocks in SA Market	7.9%
10% least volatile stocks in SA Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 1180 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of SA stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 1180's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1953	16,113	Saeed Bin Mohammed A. Al-Ghamdi	https://www.alahli.com

The Saudi National Bank provides various banking products and services in Saudi Arabia. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Wholesale, Capital Market, and International. The Retail segment provides banking services, including lending and current accounts, as well as products in compliance with Shariah rules to individuals and private banking customers.

Saudi National Bank Fundamentals Summary

How do Saudi National Bank's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
1180 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	ر.س323.98b
Earnings (TTM)	ر.س15.52b
Revenue (TTM)	ر.س29.39b

20.9x

P/E Ratio

2.0x

P/B Ratio

Is 1180 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
1180 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	ر.س29.39b
Cost of Revenue	ر.س0
Gross Profit	ر.س29.39b
Other Expenses	ر.س13.86b
Earnings	ر.س15.52b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.50
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	52.83%
Debt/Equity Ratio	105.0%

How did 1180 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.0%

Current Dividend Yield

57%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 1180 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1180?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 1180. This is calculated by dividing 1180's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 1180's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	ر.س323.98b

1180 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1180's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

1180 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1180 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	24.1x
1120 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment	21.8x	13.4%	ر.س351.6b
1010 Riyad Bank	23.5x	15.7%	ر.س111.9b
1060 Saudi British Bank	25.7x	22.2%	ر.س87.3b
1150 Alinma Bank	25.4x	20.6%	ر.س76.3b
1180 Saudi National Bank	20.9x	20.3%	ر.س324.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1180 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the peer average (24.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1180's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1180 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the SA Banks industry average (22.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1180's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1180 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.9x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 1180's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1180 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1180 (SAR73) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR60.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1180 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Saudi National Bank forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

20.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 1180's forecast earnings growth (20.3% per year) is above the savings rate (8.9%).

Earnings vs Market: 1180's earnings (20.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the SA market (-0.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 1180's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 1180's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the SA market (-3.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 1180's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 1180's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.6%).

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Past Performance

How has Saudi National Bank performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

9.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 1180 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 1180's current net profit margins (52.8%) are lower than last year (55.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 1180's earnings have grown by 9.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 1180's earnings growth over the past year (30.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (9.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 1180 earnings growth over the past year (30.6%) exceeded the Banks industry 25.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 1180's Return on Equity (10%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Saudi National Bank's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: 1180's Assets to Equity ratio (5.9x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: 1180 has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (132%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 74% of 1180's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: 1180 has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (56%).

Low Risk Deposits: 1180's Loans to Deposits ratio (90%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: 1180 has an appropriate level of bad loans (1.6%).

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Dividend

What is Saudi National Bank current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.01%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 1180's dividend (3.01%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the SA market (1.84%).

High Dividend: 1180's dividend (3.01%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the SA market (4.3%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 1180 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: 1180's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (56.9%), 1180's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: 1180's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (51.7% payout ratio).

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Saeed Bin Mohammed A. Al-Ghamdi (59 yo)

1.33yrs

Tenure

ر.س688,000

Compensation

Mr. Saeed Bin Mohammed A. Al-Ghamdi serves as Managing Director and Group Chief Executive Officer at The Saudi National Bank (formerly known as The National Commercial Bank) since April 1, 2021 and serves...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 1180's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 1180's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31