Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Public Joint Stock Oil Company Bashneft (MCX:BANE) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Oil Company Bashneft
What Is Oil Company Bashneft's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Oil Company Bashneft had ₽131.3b in debt in September 2021; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₽13.1b, its net debt is less, at about ₽118.1b.
How Healthy Is Oil Company Bashneft's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Oil Company Bashneft had liabilities of ₽124.0b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₽221.5b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₽13.1b in cash and ₽220.7b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₽111.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Oil Company Bashneft has a market capitalization of ₽232.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Oil Company Bashneft has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.0. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 12.7 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Even more impressive was the fact that Oil Company Bashneft grew its EBIT by 815% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Oil Company Bashneft's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Oil Company Bashneft barely recorded positive free cash flow, in total. While many companies do operate at break-even, we prefer see substantial free cash flow, especially if a it already has dead.
Our View
Oil Company Bashneft's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle to convert EBIT to free cash flow. Considering this range of data points, we think Oil Company Bashneft is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Oil Company Bashneft is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About MISX:BANE
Oil Company Bashneft
Public Joint Stock Oil Company Bashneft engages in the development and implementation, exploration, production, and refining of oil reserves in Russia.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.