Banca Transilvania Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TLV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TLV (RON28.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (RON42.16)

Is TLV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TLV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TLV (RON28.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RON42.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TLV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLV?

Key metric: As TLV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TLV. This is calculated by dividing TLV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TLV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	5.8x
Earnings	RON 4.43b
Market Cap	RON 25.79b

TLV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.9x
BRD BRD - Groupe Société Générale	8.6x	3.6%	RON 13.1b
PBK Patria Bank	6.7x	22.7%	RON 262.3m
FEDERALBNK Federal Bank	12.4x	13.2%	₹513.5b
CBD Commercial Bank of Dubai PSC	7.7x	2.9%	د.إ21.8b
TLV Banca Transilvania	5.8x	-2.3%	RON 25.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.8x
Fair PE Ratio	7.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	RON 28.20	RON 28.65 +1.6%	14.4%	RON 33.37	RON 21.80	n/a	5
Nov ’25	RON 28.30	RON 27.16 -4.0%	12.7%	RON 31.90	RON 21.80	n/a	5
Oct ’25	RON 27.75	RON 27.16 -2.1%	12.7%	RON 31.89	RON 21.80	n/a	5
Sep ’25	RON 28.75	RON 27.16 -5.5%	12.7%	RON 31.89	RON 21.80	n/a	5
Aug ’25	RON 29.10	RON 24.87 -14.5%	14.3%	RON 29.62	RON 18.99	n/a	5
Jul ’25	RON 27.70	RON 24.87 -10.2%	14.3%	RON 29.62	RON 18.99	n/a	5
Jun ’25	RON 27.18	RON 24.87 -8.5%	14.3%	RON 29.62	RON 18.99	n/a	5
May ’25	RON 24.74	RON 24.41 -1.3%	7.8%	RON 26.57	RON 21.91	n/a	4
Apr ’25	RON 24.22	RON 23.53 -2.8%	10.4%	RON 26.57	RON 20.03	n/a	5
Mar ’25	RON 23.00	RON 23.53 +2.3%	10.4%	RON 26.57	RON 20.03	n/a	5
Feb ’25	RON 21.58	RON 22.09 +2.3%	5.0%	RON 23.27	RON 20.03	n/a	5
Jan ’25	RON 21.13	RON 22.09 +4.5%	5.0%	RON 23.27	RON 20.03	n/a	5
Dec ’24	RON 20.02	RON 22.14 +10.6%	5.3%	RON 23.52	RON 20.03	n/a	5
Nov ’24	RON 19.22	RON 21.92 +14.1%	5.4%	RON 23.52	RON 20.03	RON 28.30	6
Oct ’24	RON 19.25	RON 21.05 +9.4%	11.4%	RON 23.52	RON 15.82	RON 27.75	7
Sep ’24	RON 18.41	RON 19.97 +8.4%	14.1%	RON 23.52	RON 15.82	RON 28.75	6
Aug ’24	RON 18.62	RON 19.14 +2.8%	12.8%	RON 22.69	RON 15.82	RON 29.10	6
Jul ’24	RON 16.01	RON 19.14 +19.6%	12.8%	RON 22.69	RON 15.82	RON 27.70	6
Jun ’24	RON 14.58	RON 19.14 +31.3%	12.8%	RON 22.69	RON 15.82	RON 27.18	6
May ’24	RON 14.78	RON 19.14 +29.5%	12.8%	RON 22.69	RON 15.82	RON 24.74	6
Apr ’24	RON 15.05	RON 18.80 +24.9%	13.6%	RON 22.69	RON 15.82	RON 24.22	5
Mar ’24	RON 15.13	RON 19.99 +32.2%	21.3%	RON 27.01	RON 15.59	RON 23.00	5
Feb ’24	RON 15.31	RON 19.69 +28.6%	20.0%	RON 27.01	RON 15.59	RON 21.58	6
Jan ’24	RON 15.37	RON 19.69 +28.1%	20.0%	RON 27.01	RON 15.59	RON 21.13	6
Dec ’23	RON 15.51	RON 19.69 +26.9%	20.0%	RON 27.01	RON 15.59	RON 20.02	6
Nov ’23	RON 13.31	RON 20.54 +54.3%	17.8%	RON 27.01	RON 15.59	RON 19.22	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.