Results: Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (ELI:JMT) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.8% to close at €18.27 following the release of its third-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €8.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Jerónimo Martins SGPS surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.30 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Jerónimo Martins SGPS

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Jerónimo Martins SGPS' 18 analysts is for revenues of €35.7b in 2025. This reflects a notable 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.0% to €1.09. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €35.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.09 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €21.18. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jerónimo Martins SGPS analyst has a price target of €26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €15.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Jerónimo Martins SGPS shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Jerónimo Martins SGPS' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Jerónimo Martins SGPS' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Jerónimo Martins SGPS analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Jerónimo Martins SGPS , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.