Jerónimo Martins SGPS Valuation

Is JMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JMT (€17.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€58.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JMT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JMT?

Key metric: As JMT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for JMT. This is calculated by dividing JMT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is JMT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.6x
Earnings	€638.00m
Market Cap	€11.19b

JMT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.7x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JMT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.8x
SON Sonae SGPS	4.6x	-8.3%	€1.8b
CART Maplebear	25.5x	11.9%	US$11.1b
CPALL CP ALL	24.5x	10.9%	฿568.2b
SHP Shoprite Holdings	24.7x	11.7%	R162.5b
JMT Jerónimo Martins SGPS	17.6x	10.7%	€11.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JMT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JMT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JMT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JMT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.6x
Fair PE Ratio	13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JMT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€17.83	€21.30 +19.5%	13.6%	€26.00	€15.00	n/a	22
Nov ’25	€18.27	€21.18 +15.9%	13.9%	€26.00	€15.00	n/a	22
Oct ’25	€17.75	€22.20 +25.1%	13.2%	€27.50	€16.00	n/a	22
Sep ’25	€16.74	€22.33 +33.4%	13.4%	€27.50	€16.00	n/a	22
Aug ’25	€16.00	€22.54 +40.9%	13.0%	€27.50	€16.00	n/a	22
Jul ’25	€19.22	€23.59 +22.7%	11.4%	€28.20	€18.50	n/a	22
Jun ’25	€20.58	€23.59 +14.6%	11.4%	€28.20	€18.50	n/a	22
May ’25	€19.35	€23.73 +22.6%	12.0%	€28.60	€18.50	n/a	22
Apr ’25	€18.38	€24.53 +33.5%	11.1%	€29.00	€18.50	n/a	21
Mar ’25	€21.72	€25.37 +16.8%	12.4%	€32.50	€18.00	n/a	21
Feb ’25	€21.40	€25.12 +17.4%	13.0%	€32.50	€18.00	n/a	20
Jan ’25	€23.04	€25.37 +10.1%	12.3%	€32.50	€18.00	n/a	20
Dec ’24	€22.68	€25.22 +11.2%	12.6%	€32.50	€18.00	n/a	20
Nov ’24	€22.08	€25.03 +13.3%	12.6%	€32.50	€18.00	€18.27	20
Oct ’24	€21.26	€24.94 +17.3%	14.5%	€32.50	€17.50	€17.75	20
Sep ’24	€22.94	€25.43 +10.9%	14.1%	€32.50	€17.50	€16.74	20
Aug ’24	€24.44	€25.43 +4.1%	14.1%	€32.50	€17.50	€16.00	20
Jul ’24	€25.24	€23.36 -7.4%	11.8%	€28.50	€17.50	€19.22	20
Jun ’24	€23.76	€23.07 -2.9%	11.8%	€28.50	€17.50	€20.58	20
May ’24	€22.90	€22.87 -0.1%	10.3%	€26.50	€17.50	€19.35	21
Apr ’24	€21.62	€22.94 +6.1%	8.7%	€26.50	€18.00	€18.38	20
Mar ’24	€19.41	€22.85 +17.7%	9.1%	€26.50	€18.00	€21.72	20
Feb ’24	€19.54	€22.71 +16.2%	9.1%	€26.50	€18.00	€21.40	20
Jan ’24	€20.18	€22.79 +12.9%	7.6%	€26.50	€19.00	€23.04	21
Dec ’23	€21.60	€22.31 +3.3%	9.9%	€26.50	€16.00	€22.68	22
Nov ’23	€21.26	€22.30 +4.9%	10.0%	€26.50	€16.00	€22.08	21

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.