Coles Group Limited

ASX:COL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$24.9b

Coles Group Valuation

Is COL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COL (A$18.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$19.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COL?

Key metric: As COL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for COL. This is calculated by dividing COL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is COL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.2x
EarningsAU$1.13b
Market CapAU$24.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
EDV Endeavour Group
14.7x3.5%AU$7.6b
MTS Metcash
13.3x7.9%AU$3.5b
CASY Casey's General Stores
28.2x9.1%US$15.6b
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market
38.5x11.7%US$13.9b
COL Coles Group
22.2x5.8%AU$24.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
COL 22.2xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies53PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$18.72
AU$18.61
-0.6%
8.2%AU$21.00AU$15.50n/a15
Dec ’25AU$18.59
AU$18.64
+0.3%
8.1%AU$21.00AU$15.50n/a15
Nov ’25AU$17.61
AU$18.68
+6.1%
8.2%AU$21.00AU$15.50n/a15
Oct ’25AU$18.16
AU$19.00
+4.6%
8.6%AU$21.55AU$15.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$18.79
AU$18.85
+0.3%
8.5%AU$21.00AU$15.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$18.21
AU$17.84
-2.0%
7.2%AU$19.50AU$15.00n/a15
Jul ’25AU$16.99
AU$17.36
+2.2%
6.4%AU$19.00AU$15.00n/a15
Jun ’25AU$16.42
AU$17.23
+4.9%
6.5%AU$19.00AU$15.00n/a15
May ’25AU$16.40
AU$17.17
+4.7%
7.0%AU$19.00AU$15.00n/a15
Apr ’25AU$16.94
AU$17.08
+0.8%
6.5%AU$19.00AU$15.00n/a15
Mar ’25AU$17.08
AU$17.10
+0.1%
6.5%AU$19.00AU$15.00n/a15
Feb ’25AU$15.85
AU$16.22
+2.4%
7.9%AU$18.10AU$14.00n/a14
Jan ’25AU$16.11
AU$16.13
+0.1%
7.0%AU$18.10AU$14.50n/a14
Dec ’24AU$15.17
AU$16.00
+5.5%
7.3%AU$18.10AU$14.50AU$18.5914
Nov ’24AU$15.33
AU$16.11
+5.1%
7.5%AU$18.10AU$14.50AU$17.6115
Oct ’24AU$15.56
AU$16.59
+6.6%
7.9%AU$18.30AU$14.50AU$18.1615
Sep ’24AU$15.95
AU$16.91
+6.0%
8.8%AU$19.92AU$14.50AU$18.7916
Aug ’24AU$18.33
AU$18.68
+1.9%
11.6%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$18.2116
Jul ’24AU$18.42
AU$18.57
+0.8%
12.7%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$16.9916
Jun ’24AU$18.13
AU$18.52
+2.2%
12.8%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$16.4216
May ’24AU$18.30
AU$18.54
+1.3%
12.5%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$16.4016
Apr ’24AU$18.02
AU$18.27
+1.4%
12.6%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$16.9416
Mar ’24AU$17.99
AU$18.26
+1.5%
12.7%AU$21.50AU$14.00AU$17.0816
Feb ’24AU$17.88
AU$17.17
-4.0%
11.4%AU$19.50AU$13.60AU$15.8516
Jan ’24AU$16.72
AU$17.09
+2.2%
11.1%AU$19.50AU$13.60AU$16.1116
Dec ’23AU$16.81
AU$17.09
+1.6%
11.1%AU$19.50AU$13.60AU$15.1716

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 06:38
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Coles Group Limited is covered by 23 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter