Metcash Valuation

Is MTS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTS (A$3.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MTS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11.2x
PEG Ratio2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.5x
GNC GrainCorp
7.4x-23.3%AU$1.8b
EDV Endeavour Group
19.1x4.0%AU$9.7b
COL Coles Group
22.1x8.0%AU$22.5b
VC2 Olam Group
17.3xn/aS$4.2b
MTS Metcash
15.6x6.9%AU$4.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (17.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.6x
Fair PE Ratio18.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.91
AU$4.22
+7.9%
8.0%AU$4.90AU$3.70n/a11
Mar ’25AU$3.71
AU$3.90
+5.2%
8.2%AU$4.30AU$3.20n/a11
Feb ’25AU$3.64
AU$3.80
+4.5%
8.9%AU$4.20AU$3.00n/a11
Jan ’25AU$3.49
AU$3.84
+10.0%
8.6%AU$4.20AU$3.00n/a12
Dec ’24AU$3.55
AU$4.00
+12.7%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.05n/a12
Nov ’24AU$3.68
AU$4.03
+9.6%
10.9%AU$4.70AU$3.05n/a12
Oct ’24AU$3.78
AU$4.05
+7.1%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05n/a12
Sep ’24AU$3.72
AU$4.05
+8.8%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05n/a12
Aug ’24AU$3.64
AU$4.05
+11.2%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05n/a12
Jul ’24AU$3.76
AU$4.09
+8.8%
12.0%AU$4.90AU$3.05n/a13
Jun ’24AU$3.58
AU$4.21
+17.7%
15.1%AU$5.20AU$2.90n/a13
May ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.28
+9.7%
14.3%AU$5.00AU$2.90n/a13
Apr ’24AU$3.85
AU$4.28
+11.1%
14.3%AU$5.00AU$2.90n/a13
Mar ’24AU$4.06
AU$4.33
+6.7%
13.2%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.7113
Feb ’24AU$4.14
AU$4.33
+4.7%
13.2%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.6413
Jan ’24AU$3.98
AU$4.30
+8.1%
13.0%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.4914
Dec ’23AU$4.22
AU$4.29
+1.6%
13.4%AU$5.20AU$2.90AU$3.5514
Nov ’23AU$4.09
AU$4.31
+5.3%
14.2%AU$5.50AU$2.90AU$3.6814
Oct ’23AU$3.87
AU$4.42
+14.3%
13.7%AU$5.40AU$2.90AU$3.7814
Sep ’23AU$4.15
AU$4.34
+4.5%
16.4%AU$5.40AU$2.80AU$3.7214
Aug ’23AU$4.16
AU$4.34
+4.3%
16.4%AU$5.40AU$2.80AU$3.6414
Jul ’23AU$4.23
AU$4.31
+1.9%
16.3%AU$5.40AU$2.80AU$3.7614
Jun ’23AU$4.23
AU$4.47
+5.7%
19.8%AU$6.20AU$2.60AU$3.5814
May ’23AU$4.79
AU$4.45
-7.1%
20.0%AU$6.20AU$2.60AU$3.9014
Apr ’23AU$4.47
AU$4.45
-0.4%
20.0%AU$6.20AU$2.60AU$3.8514
Mar ’23AU$4.07
AU$4.47
+9.7%
20.5%AU$6.20AU$2.60AU$4.0613

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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