Metcash Limited

ASX:MTS Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$3.5b

Metcash Valuation

Is MTS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTS (A$3.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$12.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTS?

Key metric: As MTS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MTS. This is calculated by dividing MTS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MTS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.3x
EarningsAU$258.00m
Market CapAU$3.49b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.2x
GNC GrainCorp
26.6x15.9%AU$1.6b
EDV Endeavour Group
14.7x3.5%AU$7.6b
COL Coles Group
22.2x5.8%AU$24.9b
A026960 Dong Suh Companies
17.4xn/a₩2.9t
MTS Metcash
13.3x7.9%AU$3.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MTS 13.3xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies53PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.3x
Fair PE Ratio16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.12
AU$3.79
+21.4%
11.3%AU$4.60AU$3.10n/a13
Dec ’25AU$3.12
AU$3.78
+21.1%
10.9%AU$4.60AU$3.10n/a13
Nov ’25AU$3.03
AU$3.78
+24.9%
10.9%AU$4.60AU$3.10n/a13
Oct ’25AU$3.62
AU$4.16
+14.9%
7.2%AU$4.90AU$3.80n/a13
Sep ’25AU$3.58
AU$4.15
+15.9%
6.7%AU$4.90AU$3.80n/a13
Aug ’25AU$3.65
AU$4.15
+13.7%
6.7%AU$4.90AU$3.80n/a13
Jul ’25AU$3.56
AU$4.17
+17.0%
6.9%AU$4.90AU$3.80n/a13
Jun ’25AU$3.69
AU$4.21
+14.1%
7.7%AU$4.90AU$3.70n/a12
May ’25AU$3.84
AU$4.21
+9.7%
7.7%AU$4.90AU$3.70n/a12
Apr ’25AU$3.91
AU$4.22
+7.9%
8.0%AU$4.90AU$3.70n/a11
Mar ’25AU$3.71
AU$3.90
+5.2%
8.2%AU$4.30AU$3.20n/a11
Feb ’25AU$3.64
AU$3.80
+4.5%
8.9%AU$4.20AU$3.00n/a11
Jan ’25AU$3.49
AU$3.84
+10.0%
8.6%AU$4.20AU$3.00n/a12
Dec ’24AU$3.55
AU$4.00
+12.7%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.05AU$3.1212
Nov ’24AU$3.68
AU$4.03
+9.6%
10.9%AU$4.70AU$3.05AU$3.0312
Oct ’24AU$3.78
AU$4.05
+7.1%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05AU$3.6212
Sep ’24AU$3.72
AU$4.05
+8.8%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05AU$3.5812
Aug ’24AU$3.64
AU$4.05
+11.2%
11.5%AU$4.90AU$3.05AU$3.6512
Jul ’24AU$3.76
AU$4.09
+8.8%
12.0%AU$4.90AU$3.05AU$3.5613
Jun ’24AU$3.58
AU$4.21
+17.7%
15.1%AU$5.20AU$2.90AU$3.6913
May ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.28
+9.7%
14.3%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.8413
Apr ’24AU$3.85
AU$4.28
+11.1%
14.3%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.9113
Mar ’24AU$4.06
AU$4.33
+6.7%
13.2%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.7113
Feb ’24AU$4.14
AU$4.33
+4.7%
13.2%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.6413
Jan ’24AU$3.98
AU$4.30
+8.1%
13.0%AU$5.00AU$2.90AU$3.4914
Dec ’23AU$4.22
AU$4.29
+1.6%
13.4%AU$5.20AU$2.90AU$3.5514

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 07:23
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Metcash Limited is covered by 26 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited