Are Asseco Poland's (WSE:ACP) Statutory Earnings A Good Guide To Its Underlying Profitability?

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Asseco Poland (WSE:ACP).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Asseco Poland made a profit of zł352.0m on revenue of zł11.6b. The chart below shows how it has grown revenue over the last three years, but that profit has declined.

View our latest analysis for Asseco Poland

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. So today we'll look at what Asseco Poland's cashflow tells us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Asseco Poland's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to September 2020, Asseco Poland had an accrual ratio of -0.14. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of zł1.5b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of zł352.0m. Asseco Poland shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

Our Take On Asseco Poland's Profit Performance

Asseco Poland's accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Because of this, we think Asseco Poland's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Ultimately, this article has formed an opinion based on historical data. However, it can also be great to think about what analysts are forecasting for the future. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Asseco Poland's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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