CD Projekt S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

As you might know, CD Projekt S.A. (WSE:CDR) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong numbers. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of zł985m, some 9.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at zł4.68, 37% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering CD Projekt, is for revenues of zł767.8m in 2025. This implies a concerning 22% reduction in CD Projekt's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 44% to zł2.64 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł748.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of zł2.58 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

View our latest analysis for CD Projekt

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of zł169, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on CD Projekt, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at zł292 and the most bearish at zł90.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 22% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 28% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect CD Projekt to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CD Projekt's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at zł169, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for CD Projekt going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.