Earnings Miss: KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Missed EPS By 70% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. (WSE:KGH) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to zł130. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at zł1.20, some 70% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at zł8.7b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for KGHM Polska Miedz

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering KGHM Polska Miedz are now predicting revenues of zł37.5b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. KGHM Polska Miedz is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of zł19.69 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł37.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł21.83 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at zł160, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values KGHM Polska Miedz at zł200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł122. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.8% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 2.2% annually. So although KGHM Polska Miedz is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at zł160, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for KGHM Polska Miedz going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether KGHM Polska Miedz is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.