Analysts Are Updating Their Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa S.A. (WSE:JSW) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

It's been a good week for Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa S.A. (WSE:JSW) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.2% to zł32.20. Revenues came in 4.2% below expectations, at zł3.4b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of zł8.46 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa

Following last week's earnings report, Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be zł14.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of zł13.95 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of zł13.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł14.69 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at zł52.47, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa analyst has a price target of zł90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at zł30.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.