David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Excellence S.A. (WSE:EXC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is Excellence's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 Excellence had debt of zł14.1m, up from zł8.25m in one year. However, it does have zł1.42m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about zł12.7m.
How Healthy Is Excellence's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Excellence had liabilities of zł20.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of zł3.72m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had zł1.42m in cash and zł11.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling zł11.6m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Excellence has a market capitalization of zł27.5m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While Excellence's debt to EBITDA ratio (2.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.3, suggesting high leverage. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Even worse, Excellence saw its EBIT tank 55% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Excellence will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Excellence reported free cash flow worth 5.2% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
Mulling over Excellence's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to handle its total liabilities isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that Excellence's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Excellence is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those can't be ignored...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WSE:EXC
Excellence
Produces and sells fruit syrups, drinks, functional waters, and dietary supplements in Poland and internationally.
Outstanding track record with flawless balance sheet.