Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, ASTARTA Holding N.V. (WSE:AST) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for ASTARTA Holding
What Is ASTARTA Holding's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that ASTARTA Holding had ₴1.24b of debt in September 2021, down from ₴2.90b, one year before. On the flip side, it has ₴368.4m in cash leading to net debt of about ₴869.8m.
A Look At ASTARTA Holding's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that ASTARTA Holding had liabilities of ₴2.27b due within a year, and liabilities of ₴3.62b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₴368.4m in cash and ₴1.38b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₴4.13b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of ₴6.44b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.27 and interest cover of 2.8 times, it seems to us that ASTARTA Holding is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Pleasingly, ASTARTA Holding is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 138% gain in the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ASTARTA Holding's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, ASTARTA Holding actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
The good news is that ASTARTA Holding's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its interest cover. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like ASTARTA Holding is pretty sensible with its use of debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with ASTARTA Holding (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WSE:AST
Astarta Holding
ASTARTA Holding N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the sugar production, crop growing, soybean processing, and cattle farming businesses in Ukraine, Europe, Asia, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and good value.