Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (WSE:TRK)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (WSE:TRK) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Trakcja PRKiI

The calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (PLN, Millions)	zł1.40m	zł6.20m	zł19.1m	zł28.7m	zł36.3m	zł43.4m	zł49.7m	zł55.1m	zł59.8m	zł63.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 26.63%	Est @ 19.47%	Est @ 14.45%	Est @ 10.94%	Est @ 8.48%	Est @ 6.76%
Present Value (PLN, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	zł1.2	zł4.7	zł12.6	zł16.6	zł18.3	zł19.0	zł19.0	zł18.3	zł17.3	zł16.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = zł143m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = zł64m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (15%– 2.7%) = zł546m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= zł546m÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= zł138m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is zł281m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of zł3.2, the company appears about fair value at a 1.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Trakcja PRKiI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.852. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Trakcja PRKiI, we've put together three relevant items you should look at:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Trakcja PRKiI you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does TRK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the WSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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