Tourism Holdings Limited's (NZSE:THL) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Tourism Holdings (NZSE:THL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 14% over the last three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study Tourism Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Tourism Holdings

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Tourism Holdings is:

8.4% = NZ$27m ÷ NZ$325m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every NZ$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of NZ$0.08.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Tourism Holdings' Earnings Growth And 8.4% ROE

On the face of it, Tourism Holdings' ROE is not much to talk about. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 7.2%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Even so, Tourism Holdings has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 8.8%. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared Tourism Holdings' net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 7.6% in the same period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Tourism Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Tourism Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While the company did pay out a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. We infer that the company has been reinvesting all of its profits to grow its business.

Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 84%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Tourism Holdings' future ROE will be 9.3% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Tourism Holdings has some positive attributes. That is, quite an impressive growth in earnings. However, the low profit retention means that the company's earnings growth could have been higher, had it been reinvesting a higher portion of its profits. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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