1.3% earnings growth over 3 years has not materialized into gains for Port of Tauranga (NZSE:POT) shareholders over that period

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Port of Tauranga Limited (NZSE:POT) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 34% in three years, versus a market decline of about 6.8%. And over the last year the share price fell 25%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted.

After losing 5.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for Port of Tauranga

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Port of Tauranga actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.0% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.

Revenue is actually up 9.8% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Port of Tauranga further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

This free interactive report on Port of Tauranga's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Port of Tauranga's TSR for the last 3 years was -29%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.9% in the twelve months, Port of Tauranga shareholders did even worse, losing 23% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you would like to research Port of Tauranga in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com