Stock Analysis

MOVE Logistics Group (NZSE:MOV investor five-year losses grow to 50% as the stock sheds NZ$13m this past week

NZSE:MOV
Source: Shutterstock

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term MOVE Logistics Group Limited (NZSE:MOV) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 54% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 22% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.

Since MOVE Logistics Group has shed NZ$13m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Check out our latest analysis for MOVE Logistics Group

SWOT Analysis for MOVE Logistics Group

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.
Threat
  • No apparent threats visible for MOV.

Because MOVE Logistics Group made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Over five years, MOVE Logistics Group grew its revenue at 0.9% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 9% per year, in that time. We'd want to see proof that future revenue growth is likely to be significantly stronger before getting too interested in MOVE Logistics Group. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NZSE:MOV Earnings and Revenue Growth June 16th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between MOVE Logistics Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that MOVE Logistics Group's TSR, which was a 50% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in MOVE Logistics Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 22%, against a market gain of about 8.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that MOVE Logistics Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.