Auckland International Airport Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Auckland International Airport Limited (NZSE:AIA) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at NZ$857m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 98%, coming in at just NZ$0.0037 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Auckland International Airport

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Auckland International Airport's twelve analysts is for revenues of NZ$989.7m in 2025. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 5,424% to NZ$0.21. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$1.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.20 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of NZ$8.11, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Auckland International Airport, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$9.13 and the most bearish at NZ$5.72 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Auckland International Airport's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.6% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Auckland International Airport to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Auckland International Airport's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Auckland International Airport analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Auckland International Airport that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.