Vista Group International Limited (NZSE:VGL) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

The yearly results for Vista Group International Limited (NZSE:VGL) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were in line with expectations, at NZ$143m, while statutory losses ballooned to NZ$0.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vista Group International

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Vista Group International are now predicting revenues of NZ$153.8m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 83% to NZ$0.01. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$155.6m and losses of NZ$0.0071 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target held steady at NZ$1.96, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Vista Group International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$2.20 and the most bearish at NZ$1.70 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Vista Group International is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Vista Group International's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.6% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 16% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Vista Group International is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vista Group International's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$1.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vista Group International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Vista Group International that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.