The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. Long term Gentrack Group Limited (NZSE:GTK) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Unfortunately, they have held through a 64% decline in the share price in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 12% in the last 90 days. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 8.6% in the same timeframe.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Gentrack Group moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Gentrack Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Gentrack Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Gentrack Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 10.0% over one year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 9% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Gentrack Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Gentrack Group you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.