Oceania Healthcare Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of OCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OCA (NZ$0.8) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (NZ$0.31)

Is OCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OCA (NZ$0.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$0.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OCA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OCA?

Key metric: As OCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OCA. This is calculated by dividing OCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.4x
Earnings	NZ$31.47m
Market Cap	NZ$572.14m

OCA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	179.3x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.4x
ARV Arvida Group	10.9x	n/a	NZ$1.2b
SUM Summerset Group Holdings	7.6x	0.4%	NZ$3.1b
PHL Promisia Healthcare	11.9x	n/a	NZ$19.5m
M12 M1 Kliniken	19x	17.5%	€319.1m
OCA Oceania Healthcare	18.4x	26.5%	NZ$579.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Healthcare Industry?

11 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

11 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the Global Healthcare industry average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.4x
Fair PE Ratio	17.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	NZ$0.80	NZ$0.98 +22.2%	15.5%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.80	n/a	4
Nov ’25	NZ$0.79	NZ$0.98 +23.7%	15.5%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.80	n/a	4
Oct ’25	NZ$0.75	NZ$0.98 +30.3%	15.5%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.80	n/a	4
Sep ’25	NZ$0.81	NZ$0.96 +19.1%	16.5%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.80	n/a	4
Aug ’25	NZ$0.79	NZ$0.96 +22.0%	16.7%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.80	n/a	4
Jul ’25	NZ$0.54	NZ$0.94 +73.6%	20.5%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Jun ’25	NZ$0.55	NZ$0.95 +72.7%	19.7%	NZ$1.21	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
May ’25	NZ$0.58	NZ$0.93 +60.8%	19.1%	NZ$1.19	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Apr ’25	NZ$0.63	NZ$0.99 +57.5%	22.2%	NZ$1.31	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Mar ’25	NZ$0.59	NZ$0.99 +68.2%	22.2%	NZ$1.31	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Feb ’25	NZ$0.70	NZ$0.99 +41.1%	22.3%	NZ$1.31	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Jan ’25	NZ$0.76	NZ$0.99 +29.9%	22.3%	NZ$1.31	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Dec ’24	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.99 +37.2%	22.3%	NZ$1.31	NZ$0.69	n/a	4
Nov ’24	NZ$0.69	NZ$1.03 +48.6%	23.2%	NZ$1.38	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.79	4
Oct ’24	NZ$0.71	NZ$1.06 +49.6%	22.1%	NZ$1.38	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.75	4
Sep ’24	NZ$0.76	NZ$1.07 +40.1%	22.3%	NZ$1.39	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.81	4
Aug ’24	NZ$0.77	NZ$1.07 +38.3%	22.3%	NZ$1.39	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.79	4
Jul ’24	NZ$0.77	NZ$1.07 +38.3%	22.3%	NZ$1.39	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.54	4
Jun ’24	NZ$0.80	NZ$1.07 +33.1%	22.3%	NZ$1.39	NZ$0.72	NZ$0.55	4
May ’24	NZ$0.70	NZ$1.15 +63.9%	26.6%	NZ$1.48	NZ$0.66	NZ$0.58	4
Apr ’24	NZ$0.73	NZ$1.24 +69.2%	14.1%	NZ$1.48	NZ$1.01	NZ$0.63	4
Mar ’24	NZ$0.77	NZ$1.25 +62.3%	12.5%	NZ$1.48	NZ$1.07	NZ$0.59	4
Feb ’24	NZ$0.90	NZ$1.27 +41.1%	11.1%	NZ$1.48	NZ$1.10	NZ$0.70	4
Jan ’24	NZ$0.76	NZ$1.27 +67.1%	11.1%	NZ$1.48	NZ$1.10	NZ$0.76	4
Dec ’23	NZ$0.84	NZ$1.27 +51.2%	11.1%	NZ$1.48	NZ$1.10	NZ$0.72	4
Nov ’23	NZ$0.83	NZ$1.46 +75.3%	15.3%	NZ$1.77	NZ$1.20	NZ$0.69	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Ryman Healthcare

NZ$3.4b

Develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes, and hospitals for the elderly people in New Zealand and Australia.

RYM

NZ$4.85

0.8%

-8.3%

EBOS Group

NZ$7.1b

Engages in the marketing, wholesale, and distribution of healthcare, medical, pharmaceutical, and animal care products in Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand.

EBO

NZ$37.40

-0.4%

3.5%