Summerset Group Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SUM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SUM (NZ$13.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NZ$50.17)

Is SUM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SUM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SUM (NZ$13.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$50.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SUM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SUM?

Key metric: As SUM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SUM. This is calculated by dividing SUM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SUM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.6x
Earnings	NZ$405.42m
Market Cap	NZ$3.08b

SUM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	15.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	261.5x
PEG Ratio	19.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SUM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.3x
ARV Arvida Group	10.9x	n/a	NZ$1.2b
OCA Oceania Healthcare	18.4x	26.5%	NZ$579.4m
EBO EBOS Group	24.1x	6.9%	NZ$7.2b
PHL Promisia Healthcare	11.9x	n/a	NZ$19.5m
SUM Summerset Group Holdings	7.6x	0.4%	NZ$3.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SUM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Healthcare Industry?

11 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

11 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SUM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the Global Healthcare industry average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SUM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SUM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.6x
Fair PE Ratio	11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SUM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SUM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	NZ$13.10	NZ$13.86 +5.8%	8.0%	NZ$15.10	NZ$12.25	n/a	5
Nov ’25	NZ$12.30	NZ$13.86 +12.7%	8.0%	NZ$15.10	NZ$12.25	n/a	5
Oct ’25	NZ$11.84	NZ$13.86 +17.1%	8.0%	NZ$15.10	NZ$12.25	n/a	5
Sep ’25	NZ$11.41	NZ$13.71 +20.2%	8.6%	NZ$15.10	NZ$12.25	n/a	5
Aug ’25	NZ$11.20	NZ$13.37 +19.4%	10.5%	NZ$14.70	NZ$11.00	n/a	5
Jul ’25	NZ$9.44	NZ$12.92 +36.9%	15.6%	NZ$15.20	NZ$10.70	n/a	4
Jun ’25	NZ$9.50	NZ$12.92 +36.0%	15.6%	NZ$15.20	NZ$10.70	n/a	4
May ’25	NZ$10.83	NZ$13.14 +21.4%	14.1%	NZ$15.20	NZ$10.70	n/a	4
Apr ’25	NZ$11.40	NZ$13.13 +15.2%	14.0%	NZ$15.10	NZ$10.70	n/a	4
Mar ’25	NZ$11.00	NZ$13.13 +19.4%	14.0%	NZ$15.10	NZ$10.70	n/a	4
Feb ’25	NZ$10.99	NZ$12.56 +14.3%	17.1%	NZ$14.80	NZ$10.34	n/a	4
Jan ’25	NZ$10.25	NZ$12.40 +21.0%	17.4%	NZ$14.60	NZ$10.15	n/a	4
Dec ’24	NZ$9.40	NZ$12.40 +31.9%	17.4%	NZ$14.60	NZ$10.15	n/a	4
Nov ’24	NZ$9.80	NZ$12.40 +26.5%	17.4%	NZ$14.60	NZ$10.15	NZ$12.30	4
Oct ’24	NZ$10.20	NZ$12.40 +21.5%	16.4%	NZ$14.60	NZ$10.34	NZ$11.84	4
Sep ’24	NZ$10.30	NZ$12.40 +20.4%	16.4%	NZ$14.60	NZ$10.34	NZ$11.41	4
Aug ’24	NZ$10.20	NZ$12.10 +18.6%	17.5%	NZ$14.50	NZ$9.50	NZ$11.20	4
Jul ’24	NZ$9.59	NZ$12.21 +27.3%	18.2%	NZ$14.40	NZ$9.50	NZ$9.44	4
Jun ’24	NZ$9.08	NZ$12.21 +34.5%	18.2%	NZ$14.40	NZ$9.50	NZ$9.50	4
May ’24	NZ$8.16	NZ$12.21 +49.7%	18.2%	NZ$14.40	NZ$9.50	NZ$10.83	4
Apr ’24	NZ$8.80	NZ$13.37 +51.9%	10.7%	NZ$14.75	NZ$11.10	NZ$11.40	4
Mar ’24	NZ$9.25	NZ$13.75 +48.6%	11.2%	NZ$14.75	NZ$11.10	NZ$11.00	4
Feb ’24	NZ$9.79	NZ$13.81 +41.1%	11.6%	NZ$15.29	NZ$11.10	NZ$10.99	4
Jan ’24	NZ$8.85	NZ$14.26 +61.1%	9.4%	NZ$15.29	NZ$11.95	NZ$10.25	4
Dec ’23	NZ$9.50	NZ$14.42 +51.8%	10.0%	NZ$15.45	NZ$11.95	NZ$9.40	4
Nov ’23	NZ$9.68	NZ$14.66 +51.4%	8.6%	NZ$15.67	NZ$12.50	NZ$9.80	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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