Is The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

Most readers would already be aware that a2 Milk's (NZSE:ATM) stock increased significantly by 17% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to a2 Milk's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for a2 Milk

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for a2 Milk is:

13% = NZ$155m ÷ NZ$1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every NZ$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of NZ$0.13.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of a2 Milk's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, a2 Milk's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 9.7% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. For this reason, a2 Milk's five year net income decline of 23% raises the question as to why the high ROE didn't translate into earnings growth. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared a2 Milk's performance with the industry and found thata2 Milk's performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 5.8% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about a2 Milk's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is a2 Milk Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

a2 Milk doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that the company is keeping all of its profits, which makes us wonder why it is retaining its earnings if it can't use them to grow its business. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like a2 Milk has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com