Investors Aren't Buying Green Cross Health Limited's (NZSE:GXH) Earnings

When close to half the companies in New Zealand have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider Green Cross Health Limited (NZSE:GXH) as an attractive investment with its 9.8x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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For example, consider that Green Cross Health's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Green Cross Health

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Green Cross Health will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Green Cross Health's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 31% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 32% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we are not surprised that Green Cross Health is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Green Cross Health revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Green Cross Health (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.