Stolt-Nielsen Limited Just Beat EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Stolt-Nielsen Limited (OB:SNI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.1% to kr460. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$707m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Stolt-Nielsen surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.94 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Stolt-Nielsen

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Stolt-Nielsen's five analysts is for revenues of US$2.88b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 37% to US$7.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.54 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr519, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Stolt-Nielsen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr559 and the most bearish at kr480 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stolt-Nielsen's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Stolt-Nielsen is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr519, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Stolt-Nielsen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Stolt-Nielsen you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.