We Don’t Think Himalaya Shipping's (OB:HSHP) Earnings Should Make Shareholders Too Comfortable

Following the release of a positive earnings report recently, Himalaya Shipping Ltd.'s (OB:HSHP) stock performed well. Despite this, we feel that there are some reasons to be cautious with these earnings.

See our latest analysis for Himalaya Shipping

A Closer Look At Himalaya Shipping's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to December 2023, Himalaya Shipping recorded an accrual ratio of 1.12. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$407m despite its profit of US$1.51m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of US$407m, this year, indicates high risk. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, Himalaya Shipping increased the number of shares on issue by 37% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. You can see a chart of Himalaya Shipping's EPS by clicking here.

A Look At The Impact Of Himalaya Shipping's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is having a rather significant impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if Himalaya Shipping's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

Our Take On Himalaya Shipping's Profit Performance

As it turns out, Himalaya Shipping couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that shareholders own less of the company than the did before (unless they bought more shares). For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Himalaya Shipping's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Himalaya Shipping you should be mindful of and 2 of these bad boys shouldn't be ignored.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.