Yara International ASA Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of Yara International ASA (OB:YAR) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to kr350 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were US$3.6b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.14, an impressive 139% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Yara International. View them for free.

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Yara International are now predicting revenues of US$15.1b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 182% to US$3.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.81 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the nice gain to to the earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Yara International

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of kr357, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Yara International analyst has a price target of kr435 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr270. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Yara International shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Yara International's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.4% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Yara International to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Yara International following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at kr357, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yara International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Yara International you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.