Elopak ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The third-quarter results for Elopak ASA (OB:ELO) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €293m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit €0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Elopak

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Elopak from four analysts is for revenues of €1.26b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 8.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to €0.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.30 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at kr46.90, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Elopak, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr50.28 and the most bearish at kr44.05 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Elopak'shistorical trends, as the 6.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 8.0% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Elopak is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Elopak analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Elopak that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.