Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Carasent ASA (OB:CARA)

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 22, 2021
OB:CARA
Source: Shutterstock

How far off is Carasent ASA (OB:CARA) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Carasent

Is Carasent fairly valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (NOK, Millions) kr4.81m kr5.19m kr5.49m kr5.74m kr95.0m kr98.3m kr101.1m kr103.5m kr105.6m kr107.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 10.67% Est @ 7.84% Est @ 5.86% Est @ 4.47% Analyst x1 Est @ 3.5% Est @ 2.83% Est @ 2.35% Est @ 2.02% Est @ 1.78%
Present Value (NOK, Millions) Discounted @ 5.0% kr4.6 kr4.7 kr4.7 kr4.7 kr74.4 kr73.3 kr71.8 kr69.9 kr67.9 kr65.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr441m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr107m× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (5.0%– 1.2%) = kr2.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= kr2.9b÷ ( 1 + 5.0%)10= kr1.8b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is kr2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of kr36.0, the company appears about fair value at a 10% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
OB:CARA Discounted Cash Flow May 23rd 2021

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Carasent as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.801. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Carasent, we've put together three relevant factors you should assess:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Carasent that you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does CARA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the OB every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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