Stock Analysis

The total return for SalMar (OB:SALM) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

OB:SALM
Source: Shutterstock

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. To wit, the SalMar share price has climbed 44% in five years, easily topping the market return of 2.7% (ignoring dividends).

Although SalMar has shed kr4.2b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

View our latest analysis for SalMar

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SWOT Analysis for SalMar

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Food industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Food market.
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Norwegian market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, SalMar achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.7% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 8% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
OB:SALM Earnings Per Share Growth June 2nd 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of SalMar's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, SalMar's TSR for the last 5 years was 68%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that SalMar shareholders are down 30% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.2%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 11%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand SalMar better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for SalMar you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Norwegian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.