SalMar ASA Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

SalMar ASA (OB:SALM) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.9% to hit kr6.2b. SalMar also reported a statutory profit of kr1.50, which was an impressive 46% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from SalMar's seven analysts is for revenues of kr27.5b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.0% to kr9.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr27.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.10 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for SalMar

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr526, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic SalMar analyst has a price target of kr640 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr420. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of SalMar'shistorical trends, as the 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.0% per year. So although SalMar is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SalMar. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr526, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SalMar going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for SalMar (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.