Vår Energi AS Just Missed EPS By 38%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Vår Energi AS (OB:VAR), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$1.8b revenue coming in 5.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.08 missed the mark badly, arriving some 38% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Vår Energi's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$8.47b in 2025. This would be a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 90% to US$0.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.46 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Vår Energi

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr38.64, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vår Energi analyst has a price target of kr44.89 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr30.05. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vår Energi's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Vår Energi's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 40% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to decline 5.5% per year. So although Vår Energi is expected to return to growth, it's also expected to grow revenues during a time when the wider industry is estimated to see revenue decline.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Vår Energi's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vår Energi going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Vår Energi (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.