Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that FLEX LNG Ltd. (OB:FLNG) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for FLEX LNG
What Is FLEX LNG's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2021 FLEX LNG had debt of US$927.7m, up from US$845.1m in one year. However, it also had US$200.7m in cash, and so its net debt is US$727.1m.
How Healthy Is FLEX LNG's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that FLEX LNG had liabilities of US$131.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.55b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$200.7m as well as receivables valued at US$14.8m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.47b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$1.39b, we think shareholders really should watch FLEX LNG's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
FLEX LNG has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.2 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Pleasingly, FLEX LNG is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 166% gain in the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if FLEX LNG can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, FLEX LNG saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Mulling over FLEX LNG's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making FLEX LNG stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with FLEX LNG .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OB:FLNG
FLEX LNG
Engages in the seaborne transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide.
Moderate growth potential second-rate dividend payer.