Equinor ASA Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Equinor ASA (OB:EQNR) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.5% to close at kr283 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues were US$25b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.82 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 10%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Equinor

Taking into account the latest results, the 21 analysts covering Equinor provided consensus estimates of US$97.1b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 7.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 4.4% to US$3.28 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$96.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr292. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Equinor at kr399 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr210. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Equinor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 5.3% per year.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also made no major changes to their revenue forecasts for next year, and expected it to grow in line with the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Equinor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Equinor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Equinor (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.