Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of DNO ASA (OB:DNO)

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 24, 2021
OB:DNO
Source: Shutterstock

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of DNO ASA (OB:DNO) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for DNO

The calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$281.5m US$129.7m US$134.3m US$101.6m US$83.8m US$73.9m US$68.0m US$64.4m US$62.2m US$61.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ -17.5% Est @ -11.91% Est @ -7.99% Est @ -5.25% Est @ -3.33% Est @ -1.98%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% US$258 US$109 US$103 US$71.3 US$53.9 US$43.4 US$36.6 US$31.7 US$28.1 US$25.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$759m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$61m× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (9.3%– 1.2%) = US$761m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$761m÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= US$314m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of kr9.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
OB:DNO Discounted Cash Flow December 24th 2021

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DNO as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.851. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For DNO, there are three fundamental aspects you should look at:

  1. Risks: Be aware that DNO is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
  2. Future Earnings: How does DNO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Norwegian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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