Aker BP ASA Just Missed EPS By 33%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Aker BP ASA (OB:AKRBP), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$3.1b revenue coming in 2.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.49 missed the mark badly, arriving some 33% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Aker BP's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$10.7b in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 14% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 4.5% to US$2.44 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.61 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Aker BP

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of kr261, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Aker BP's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aker BP at kr325 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr190. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Aker BP shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 19% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 30% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Aker BP's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year. Forecasts imply the business' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at kr261, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Aker BP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Aker BP you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.