Aker BP ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Aker BP ASA (OB:AKRBP) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.28, some 64% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$3.0b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aker BP after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Aker BP

Taking into account the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Aker BP provided consensus estimates of US$11.0b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 15% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 20% to US$2.72. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.71 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr287. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Aker BP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr370 and the most bearish at kr220 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 35% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 5.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Aker BP's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Aker BP is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr287, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aker BP going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Aker BP you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.