Aker BP ASA Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Aker BP ASA (OB:AKRBP) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Aker BP beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$3.1b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 19%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aker BP

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 17 analysts covering Aker BP, is for revenues of US$12.7b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 6.1% reduction in Aker BP's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 14% to US$3.34. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$12.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.30 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr319. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aker BP at kr415 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr230. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.0% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 37% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 4.8% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Aker BP, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Aker BP is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Aker BP going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Aker BP (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com