Cadeler (OB:CADLR) Valuation After Early Delivery of ‘Wind Mover’ and Rapid Fleet Expansion

Cadeler (OB:CADLR) just took delivery of Wind Mover, its tenth wind turbine installation vessel, ahead of schedule, effectively doubling the fleet in a year and pushing the stock back onto investors radar.

See our latest analysis for Cadeler.

Those milestones come after a busy few weeks, including a stronger balance sheet from a new green loan facility and upgraded earnings guidance. Yet the 1 year share price return is still weak, while the 5 year total shareholder return remains solid. This suggests long term momentum, but short term sentiment has cooled.

If Cadeler's expanding offshore wind fleet has you thinking about where growth could show up next, it is worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With revenue and profits climbing, but the share price down sharply this year and still trading at a notable discount to analyst targets, the key question is whether Cadeler is now a mispriced growth story or if the market already anticipates its next leg of expansion.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 52.9% Undervalued

According to Mandelman, the narrative fair value for Cadeler sits far above the last close of NOK 44.9, framing the stock as deeply mispriced against its growth path.

Given the adjusted revenue outlook, I increase expected revenue growth from 27% to 30%, projecting that Cadeler will reach EUR 1 billion in rolling-12 revenue around mid-2028, after which growth is expected to slow. Exceptional high margins are expected to normalize as indicated in the IR response above (although analysts still forecast 30 to 40%), and I reduce the net margin assumption from 27% to 22%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how aggressive growth, shifting margins, and a future profit multiple come together to justify that upside vision? The full narrative spells out the math, step by step, and it is not what short term price action suggests.

Result: Fair Value of $95.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, execution missteps, from vessel delays to post merger integration snags, or a sharper policy slowdown in offshore wind, could quickly challenge that bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Cadeler narrative.

Build Your Own Cadeler Narrative

If you see things differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Cadeler research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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