There May Be Some Bright Spots In AF Gruppen's (OB:AFG) Earnings

The market for AF Gruppen ASA's (OB:AFG) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. Our analysis suggests that while the profits are soft, the foundations of the business are strong.

See our latest analysis for AF Gruppen

Examining Cashflow Against AF Gruppen's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to December 2023, AF Gruppen recorded an accrual ratio of -0.36. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of kr1.6b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of kr402.0m. AF Gruppen's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On AF Gruppen's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, AF Gruppen's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think AF Gruppen's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of AF Gruppen.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of AF Gruppen's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.