InPost S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that InPost S.A. (AMS:INPST) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to €16.87 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at zł0.51, some 31% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at zł2.5b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for InPost

Following the latest results, InPost's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of zł13.1b in 2025. This would be a huge 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 70% to zł3.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł13.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł3.43 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €19.22, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic InPost analyst has a price target of €22.81 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €8.03. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that InPost is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that InPost's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 35% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while InPost's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple InPost analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for InPost you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.