What ASM International NV's (AMS:ASM) P/E Is Not Telling You

ASM International NV's (AMS:ASM) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the Netherlands, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, ASM International has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Is There Enough Growth For ASM International?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like ASM International's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 91% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 162% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 16% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that ASM International is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of ASM International's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ASM International, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than ASM International. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.