ASM International NV Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.8% to €582. Revenues were €639m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €3.50, an impressive 29% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ASM International

Following the latest results, ASM International's 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €2.84b in 2024. This would be a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 22% to €13.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of €12.07 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.1% to €623. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ASM International at €780 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €432. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASM International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while ASM International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ASM International following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ASM International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for ASM International that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.