Akzo Nobel N.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Akzo Nobel N.V. (AMS:AKZA) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to €55.74 in the past week. Revenues of €2.8b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €2.10, missing estimates by 5.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Akzo Nobel

Following last week's earnings report, Akzo Nobel's 16 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €10.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €3.41, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €10.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.75 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €73.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Akzo Nobel analyst has a price target of €91.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €53.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Akzo Nobel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Akzo Nobel is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Akzo Nobel. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €73.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akzo Nobel going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Akzo Nobel you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com